2100.org

Later on, the re-invention by Gutenberg in Mainz of the printing press did not at that time change technology because the aim of Gutenberg was to diffuse copies of the Bible. Until the 18th century, the Bible represented 90% of all reading matter. The purpose in printing the Bible was to allow people to read the Bible individually and to reflect on what they had read without the Church intervening. This was a Protestant idea and it worked. Afterwards, there were effects on literature but it is only in the 18th century that we find effects on technology.   In order to transmit technology, we need images ; A text is not enough. Here is an image from the Great Encyclopaedia which was published in 28 000 copies in the middle of the 18th century. This was one of the basic documents that permitted the spread of knowledge to a vast public, numerous enough to invent. As you know, the industrial revolution was one of the main periods of invention.

The technical system of the Industrial Revolution can also be depicted by four poles :

This period was a one of production as you can see from this publicity poster produced in order to stimulate the American public during the Second World War. For people of this society, the answer to any challenge of the time was, Production.

. Production was organised in enormous factories with several tens of thousands of employees. This is an example of such a factory of the 30's.

Nowadays, when we reflect on the same factory, we have very different world : man has been replaced by the robot. Man is no longer present ; he has been chased from the production site.   We are entering a new technical system.

In summarising this first part of my talk, I would like to note the following points :

1) From time to time, civilizations are transformed by a global change in the Technical System. There is not only one technology, neither is there a collection of technologies. One finds an interactive and systemic change. This kind of event occurs only once in a century and lasts for approximately two centuries. For instance, the Industrial Revolution started somewhere between 1700 and 1750 and it is still not a world-wide phenomenon today. Nearly half of mankind is still waiting to enter the Industrial Revolution ; in the meantime, these populations must accept conditions of work which would be unacceptable for the developed countries. This is a very difficult challenge for our companies. Thus if we say that we now have a new technical system which is beginning at the end of the 20th century, this is an excellent moment to make perspectives for the next century. We know about the elements. They are already present ; but they will be diffused and they will increase, thus transforming society for at least one century in time.